UK manufacturing sees first quarterly decline in a decade amid global trade tensions

UK manufacturing output has declined for the first time in ten years during the initial quarter of 2025, amid concerns about a global trade war and increased taxation impacting businesses.

The sector saw a one per cent drop in the first three months after experiencing a 20 per cent surge in the preceding quarter, with UK orders falling by seven per cent, as per figures from industry body Make UK, as reported by City AM.

"Albeit the sector wide contraction is only minor, the negative balance at the start of a year is an ominous one," Make UK commented.

The organisation has revised its forecast for the manufacturing sector, predicting a contraction of -0.5 per cent this year, a decrease from the previously estimated -0.2 per cent, but anticipates growth of one per cent in the following year.

Basic metals were particularly affected by the downturn this quarter, witnessing a 50 per cent reduction in production, while electrical and metal products experienced a 12 per cent decline.

Additionally, recruitment intentions within the sector have weakened, shifting from an eight per cent rise to a three per cent fall, with half of the firms putting a hold on hiring.

A significant portion of the employment slump has been linked to policies introduced in the Autumn 2024 Budget, leading 41 per cent of companies to cut back on planned pay hikes and a quarter to consider layoffs.

Concerns regarding a potential trade conflict triggered by US President Donald Trump have also unsettled international markets, resulting in export order growth dwindling to a mere one per cent, a steep drop from the ten per cent increase seen in the previous quarter.

Verity Davidge, policy director at Make UK, commented: "Manufacturers feel like they are currently wading through treacle, facing barriers and increased costs being imposed on them at every turn. The one light at the end of the tunnel is the prospect of a modern, long term industrial strategy which will enable them to plan for the future with confidence in a supportive policy environment."